Welcome to the 2021 Fusarium Head Blight Prediction Center.  The Prediction Center was renovated this past year and you may need to refresh your web browser to enjoy some of the new features. Please take a few minutes to familiarize yourself with the locations of help documents (“?” Button), assessment date selection (calendar), and model selection tools  (menu button in the upper left).  

 The Prediction Center is currently focused on southern states where wheat is actively growing and likely moving through the jointing and flag leaf emergence stages of growth.  The risk maps indicate the risk is currently low in most areas of LA, MS, AL and GA. Wheat in these areas of the country are likely to enter the vulnerable growth stages over the next two weeks.

-- Stephen Crawford

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org

This will likely be the last small grains disease update for the 2020 cropping season. I didn't update the commentary at the beginning of the week as nearly all wheat and barley acres reached anthesis the week before and all fungicide decisions for the season had been made. Instead, I took the past few days to get some idea of how widespread and severe FHB infections are in the region. It is not hard to find FHB in the yield trials in NW Minnesota. The field severities are nowhere near disastrous but high enough in some of the more susceptible varieties that you would be faced with discounts upon delivery of the grain to the elevator because the DON content will exceed the 2 ppm limit. Severities in the few commercial fields I scouted and some of the comments I received from crop consultants to date is that FHB severities are not bad and even a bit lower than last season. The major difference between the trials and the commercial production is variety selection and the application of a fungicide at Feekes 10.5.

Nonetheless, I encourage to evaluate the extent of the FHB infections in the next two weeks. This is an important first step to not just become aware of the extent of the damages but also to start developing a plan of attack to minimize the impact of these FHB infections on the grain quality.

Your first step to maintaining quality and avoid the potential discounts due to low test weight, fusarium damaged kernels and the presence of DON is to segregate the worst affected fields or areas of fields and not co-mingle the grain. Your second step is to increase the fan speed during harvest to reduce the number of fusarium damaged kernels in the grain tank.

Unfortunately, you will also increase your harvest losses as you increase your fan speed as smaller but otherwise sound kernels will also be left in the field. Often these smaller kernels come from the spikelets above the initial point of infection and where the FHB has grown into the rachis, thereby halting the grain fill of the kernels higher on the rachis. I expect kernel weights to be down anyway as the heat and humidity we have had to endure to date will likely result in smaller kernels than most years.

If needed, the next step is to use a grain cleaner to further reduce the number of fusarium damaged kernels. A Kwik-Kleen grain cleaner or equivalent allows you to clean the grain prior to putting the grain in storage.

Meanwhile, the Wheat Stem Sawfly is completing the summer portion of its life cycle as the larvae are reaching the bottom of the infected stems and are now starting to girdle the lower portion of the stem to build the hatch in their home for the winter in the small piece of stem just above the crown but below the soil surface. Stems infected with WSS will start falling over anytime after the crop has reached physiological maturity and is drying down.

The WSS were alive and well in the Crookston and Fisher area earlier this season when we monitored their emergence. However, I also have received reports of WSS from as far south as Glyndon and well east of Crookston. These are just two reports but if confirmed it points to a further spreading of this 'ink stain'. I once again ask for your cooperation and report any fields you suspect WSS infections.

Good luck and stay safe with the harvest!

--Jochum Wiersma, Extension Agronomist, University of Minnesota Crookston

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org

Welcome to the Fusarium Head Blight Prediction Center, 2020. The system has undergone revisions for this year and it may help to familiarize yourself with the interface. The new interface provides a map-based estimate of disease risk for the current date. Users can select other dates of interest from the menu in the upper left portion of the interface. The date selected should correspond to times when your wheat is at or nearflowering, because the crop is most susceptible to infection at this growth stage. There is also a menu icon in the upper left corner that allows users to customize the model predictions for winter vs. spring wheat, and account for wheat varieties with different levels of genetic resistance to Fusarium head blight. The megaphone icon in the upper right activates this commentary display window. The selecting the colored buttons along the top of the commentary window displays state-specific commentary.

The focus of the prediction effort is currently on North Dakota, Northern Minnesota, where later planted spring wheat may still be at the heading and flowering stages of growth. The models indicate a moderate or high level of risk for susceptible wheat varieties in portions of North Dakota and western Minnesota. Growers in these areas should consult with local advisors to determine what other local factors that might also influence the risk of disease.

--Erick DeWolf, Extension Plant Pathologist, Kansas State University

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org

Small Grains Disease Update 07/13/20

This past week I found the first Fusarium Head blight (FHB) infected spikelets in my trials near Oklee. This trial was seeded on April 24th and the earliest entries are approaching the soft dough stage. The incidence and severity of the FHB were very low, certainly in comparison to the amount of tan spot and Bacterial Leaf Streak (BLS) present in the canopy. Nonetheless, the presence of infected spikelets confirms that the conditions on the ground were indeed as forecasted by the risk model. The Septoria leaf spotting diseases and leaf rust were still mostly and completely absent, respectively.
The immediate weather forecast calls for rain tonight across much of northwest Minnesota and a period of more moderate temperatures and relative humidities. This bodes well for the grainfill but I doubt that the risk for tan spot, leaf rust, and FHB is going to drop substantially. There is still plenty of soil moisture to create the needed leaf wetness periods to create initial infections for the aforementioned diseases.
It remains therefore imperative to stay vigilant the coming week and apply a fungicide onto the remaining spring wheat acres that have yet to reach the beginning of anthesis (Feekes 10.51). The decision on whether to use tebuconazole or Prosaro/Caramba/Miravis Ace remains difficult. Prosaro/Caramba/Miravis Ace each improve suppression of FHB by about 15% to 20% over tebuconazole.

--Jochum Wiersma, Extension Agronomist, University of Minnesota Crookston

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org

A moderate to high level of scab risk exists for susceptible varieties across a large portion of the state. Scab risk for moderately susceptible varieties is moderate to high for areas on the eastern quarter of the state and pockets in northwest ND. Conversations with growers, agronomists and consultants suggest there is a wide range of crop stages in the state, so continue to monitor growth stages in the fields and apply a fungicide if warranted.

--Andrew Friskop, Cereal Extension Pathologist, NDSU Department of Plant Pathology

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org

Disease Update 07/08/20

In my travels last week across northern Minnesota, I found little to no disease in the spring wheat trials or fields that I walked. I did find, however, plenty of standing water and drown outs. And, like in the southern part of the state, I did find the first signs of net blotch in barley.
On Monday I revisited the trials in LeCenter and in just 10 days since my last visit Bacterial Leaf Streak (BLS) had made its mark on the spring wheat trial. It was both amazing and disheartening to see how quickly BLS had torn through the canopy of some of the entries. Fortunately, there were also entries that to date had faired much better. These observations have been corroborated by reports from growers in southern Minnesota that have reported BLS to me.
The issue that is even more concerning than BLS is Fusarium Head Blight (FHB). The continued hot and humid weather across much of the state combined with the intermittent thunderstorms has meant and will mean that the risk of FHB infections has increased now to very high for varieties that are rated susceptible to very susceptible to the disease. The risk is now even moderate to high for varieties that are rated moderately susceptible or moderately resistant to FHB in many parts of the state.
The decision to apply a fungicide to suppress FHB is not a question of 'if' but a question of 'when' going forward. The immediate forecast continues to be hot and humid with scattered thunderstorms across much of the state. The only fields that are probably exempt are those that are in the pockets across the state that keep missing the thunderstorms and are actually drought-stressed.
The decision on whether to use tebuconazole or Prosaro/Caramba/Miravis Ace has not gotten any easier as the overall health and thus yield potential of the crop has been declining and likely will continue to decline with the continued hot weather and stress caused by the excess water. The later three fungicides each improve suppression of FHB by about 15% to 20% over tebuconazole.

--Jochum Wiersma, Extension Agronomist, University of Minnesota Crookston

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org

According to the National Fusarium Risk model, risk continues to remain high for susceptible varieties that are flowering in Eastern ND and for an extended area in northwest North Dakota. For moderately susceptible varieties, risk is low for most of the state Recent rain events and higher nighttime humidity will likely increase FHB risk on susceptible varieties for most of the state (exception being southwest ND). Continue to monitor the growth stage in small grain fields to determine the best time to apply a fungicide (if warranted). The best time to apply a fungicide in wheat is at early flowering and up to seven days after the start of flowering. In barley, the best time to apply is at full-head and up to seven days after full-head.

--Andrew Friskop, Cereal Extension Pathologist, NDSU Department of Plant Pathology

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org

In my travels last week across southern Minnesota, I found little to no disease in the spring wheat trials or fields that I walked. I found net blotch in one of the barley varieties (Pinnacle) that is very susceptible to this foliar pathogen and here and there was some tan spot in some of the winter wheat varieties. The most common and widespread, however, was BYDV. In production fields, these virus infections were the typical small circular patches or individual plants that showed the typical bright yellow flag leaves. In individual plots, these were often individual plants along edges of the plot. I found no leaf or stripe rust and it was a bit too early to see whether there were any of scab infections.

The risk of FHB increased in especially north of US Hwy 2 and across much of southern Minnesota (south of US Hwy 12), while conditions for tan spot remained high across much of the state. The notable exceptions for increased risk for FHB infections, or the foliar diseases, were the southern Red River Valley and west-central Minnesota. The very dry conditions I encountered in my trials near Benson explain why. There simply wasn't and still isn't enough moisture in the whole system to have leaf wetness periods long enough for any of the diseases to create initial infections.
The predicted heat for the coming week combined with the forecast of scattered thunderstorms will likely mean that the risk for FHB will remain high for varieties that are rated very susceptible or susceptible to the disease in those areas that already have adequate soil moisture. The risk for FHB infections will likely be moderate for varieties that are rated moderately resistant or better. If your barley or hard red spring wheat crop reaches anthesis (Feekes 10.51) this coming week, you will need to make a decision whether you choose tebuconazole or one Prosaro/Caramba/Miravis Ace. The later three fungicides each improve suppression of FHB by about 15% to 20% over tebuconazole. All products will provide very good to excellent control of any of the foliar diseases.

--Jochum Wiersma, Extension Agronomist, University of Minnesota Crookston

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org

Most of the spring wheat is at or will soon be at flowering. One disease that can develop in wheat at this growth stage is Fusarium head blight (FHB or scab). The FHB pathogen infects the wheat head through the senescing flowers and can cause reduced yield and accumulation of mycotoxins, mainly deoxynivalenol (DON). Wheat grain with more than 2ppm can be docked for price at the elevators. The only in-season FHB management strategy is timely application of a fungicide at flowering. Since by the time FHB symptoms develop, it would be too late to apply a fungicide, an FHB prediction tool can be very helpful in gauging the risk for FHB. Currently, the FHB risk is showing to be moderate to high for a few areas in the eastern half of the state. For fields in these areas where spring wheat is at flowering, a fungicide is recommended to manage FHB. Keep checking on this FHB prediction tool when deciding on FHB fungicide application.

A few fungicides that are effective against FHB include Prosaro, Miravis Ace and Caramba. These fungicides have been tested widely in the region and provide protection against FHB and other fungal leaf diseases. Based on diseases developing in winter wheat such as powdery mildew, stripe rust, leaf rust, and tan spot; a fungicide applied for FHB management would also protect against these fungal leaf diseases.

--Emmanuel Byamukama, Extension Plant Pathologist , South Dakota State University

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org

Small Grains Disease Update 06/22/2020

Little changed in both the risk models or reports that I received this past week. I suspect there is some stripe rust and crown rust here and there across the southern half of the state, while tan spot is probably the only fungal disease you might find in the northern half of the state as of today.
That is likely to change in the near future as much needed rain fell across much of the state when a couple of cold fronts brought relief from the blast-furnace heat and wind of the first half of last week. While the risk of leaf rust infections has already started trending higher over the weekend for all but the northeastern edge of the state, the risk of infection for FHB will start to increase by tomorrow.
The heat in the first part of last week continued to push the development of the spring wheat crop and the first spring wheat fields reached heading over the weekend in the northwest part of the state. This means that you will need to actively scout individual fields to determine the current growth stage, and locate whether you have tan spot, stripe rust, or possibly even leaf rust near the bottom, middle, or top of the canopy.
The hot windy weather itself or the herbicides applied during the hot windy weather may have caused physiological speckling or discolorations that can easily be mistaken for one of the foliar fungal diseases. Remember that tan spot, septoria, stripe, and leaf rust almost always start near the bottom of the canopy and move upwards to newer leaves as the growing season progresses. You should therefore always find worse symptoms of the same diseases lower in the canopy. Bacterial Leaf Streak (BLS) is an exception to this rule of thumb.
While your scouting you may wonder what the yield potential of the spring wheat crop is. People have already commented to me that the crop seems very short this season. I'll repost a Minnesota Crop News article about the lack of height of the crop and whether that spells disaster before grain fill even has started.
The weather forecast for the coming week looks very favorable for grain fill for winter wheat, rye, and the earliest spring wheat, barley, and oat fields as daytime highs not forecasted to exceed 85 and nighttime lows will remain in the low to mid-fifties for much of the state.
Bring your rubber boots
--Jochum Wiersma, Extension Agronomist, University of Minnesota Crookston

For more details, go to the FHB Risk assessment tool at http://www.wheatscab.psu.edu

For the latest news and updates from the U.S. Wheat & Barley Scab Initiative, go to https://www.scabusa.org